Once confined to Quebec, the idea of provinces breaking away from Canada now has the support of one in four adults throughout the country, or 8.3 million people. 

Quebeckers have toyed with separating longer than anyone. They rejected sovereignty in a referendum in 1980 (60 per cent voted no) and again in 1995 (51 per cent voted no). But today, there are separatists in every region of the country. 

In a national poll in November, 25 per cent of Canadians said they would vote yes if a referendum “were held tomorrow” on whether their province “should become an independent country and no longer part of Canada.” The poll was conducted from Nov. 12 to 14 with 1,231 respondents by the Logit Group, a North American market research firm headquartered in Toronto.

In opinion polls, support for provincial independence in the rest of Canada has never reached Quebec levels. In 1997, Environics Research asked, “Do you support or oppose your province becoming an independent country?” Just 9 per cent outside of Quebec said they support it. Today, that support for secession has more than doubled.

According to the new poll, 21 per cent in the rest of the country and 37 per cent in Quebec definitely or probably would vote to leave. Outside Quebec, backing for secession is driven by Alberta, where 35 per cent would vote yes.

How committed to making their province a country are people who favour divorcing from Canada? Polls that only ask people how they would vote in a provincial independence referendum do the public a disservice by oversimplifying the issue. On a vital matter such as separation, it’s important to know if Canadians understand what breaking away could entail. Poll questions that don’t include the costs or trade-offs involved in secession are like the wish lists children mail to Santa Claus.

To test how firmly “yes” voters are attached to provincial independence, the new poll asked them to reflect on different post-secession scenarios. Throughout the country, the “yes” vote shrank by five to eight percentage points when people were confronted with possible consequences of separation. 

For instance, if becoming an independent country meant their province had to establish its own military “because the Canadian Armed Forces would no longer protect the province,” better than one in four (26 per cent) of pro-secession respondents would no longer vote to separate. 

What if becoming an independent country meant their province “had to pay dues to join international bodies like the United Nations”? In that scenario, 25 per cent of people who originally supported separating reversed their position and would vote no.

If their province “had to create its own central bank and its own currency, replacing the Canadian dollar,” one in five people (19 per cent) who originally would vote yes to separation changed their vote to no.

If their province had to take over the federal government’s responsibility to regulate banks, airports, railways, food inspection, radio and TV, nearly one in five (17 per cent) who originally said they would vote yes changed their mind.

The poll also asked residents of Alberta — the only province with no provincial sales tax — how they would vote if going independent required a sales tax “to pay for the loss of federal government spending for services such as Canada Post, the CBC, health care, employment insurance, foreign aid, Old Age Security and national defence.” The prospect of a sales tax drove three in 10 pro-independence Albertans (31 per cent) to reverse their vote to no.

There are two vital takeaways in these results. 

First, among those who “probably” or “definitely” would vote to make their province a country, just slightly more than half (57 per cent) say they would “definitely” vote to separate. The rest (43 per cent) “probably” would. This is support for secession before respondents thought about some of the possible costs and trade-offs of having their province become a country. People who think they “probably” would vote to secede are kicking the tires on secession. 

They have yet to reach a final decision.

Second, the poll findings mean there are few ardent separatists — except in Alberta, where 25 per cent definitely would vote yes and 10 per cent probably would. In other provinces, passionate secessionists and those who are merely curious about separating split about the same way as “yes” voters in Alberta. 

In Quebec, the 37 per cent pro-separatist segment of the population looks imposing, but it’s composed of only 17 per cent who would definitely vote yes in a new referendum and 20 per cent who say they probably would;

In British Columbia, 24 per cent overall would vote yes — 15 per cent definitely and nine per cent probably;

In Ontario, 18 per cent would vote to leave Canada — 10 per cent say definitely and 8 per cent probably;

In the Atlantic provinces, 15 per cent are secessionist voters — 10 per cent definitely would vote to separate, while six per cent probably would.

On the other hand, even after considering the possible costs of independence, three quarters of pro-separation people still would vote to make their province an independent country and “no longer part of Canada.” They are a small but committed, disgruntled minority. The poll shows it will be hard to change their minds.

Marc Zwelling founded the Vector Poll™ and is the author of Public Opinion and Polling For Dummies and Ideas and Innovation For Dummies. 

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