The Winter Olympics have wrapped up in Italy. For two weeks, Canadian athletes gave us reason to celebrate excellence, feel proud and, at times, even shed a tear.

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I’m not much of a sports fan. But during those two weeks where the whole world comes together, the Olympics are the only thing on my television at home. I watch for the thrill of the performances, of course, and also for the simple pleasure of cheering for Canada, even more so in the challenging times we are living in.

Melançon: Will sovereignty cost the PQ the gold medal at the election Olympics? Back to video

This is not a sports column. For political nerds like me, the real Olympics — general elections, which also tend to come around every four years — have yet to begin.

Still, Monday’s byelection in Chicoutimi offered us a foretaste of what we might expect.

It was only a local snapshot. Much can change before Quebecers head to the polls this year. But the Coalition Avenir Québec’s collapse — falling to just under 12 per cent of the vote in a riding it won with its biggest majority in the province, at 62 per cent just three and a half years ago — signals the scale of the challenge facing whoever succeeds François Legault as leader this spring.

The CAQ’s support melted like snow in Milan. The party’s staggering 50-point drop benefited the Parti Québécois, which captured the seat with 45 per cent of the vote, but most of all helped Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives, who surprised many observers by finishing second with a respectable score of 26 per cent in a region where they had little organizational base until now.

There’s always been two main factions within the CAQ. Monday’s result suggests those two groups are now drifting apart, with nationalists moving toward the PQ and right-leaning voters toward the Quebec Conservatives.

So, what does that mean for the next general election?

Melançon: Time to tow the SAAQ to the scrapyard

Melançon: As Milliard takes helm of Quebec Liberals, major challenges lie ahead

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Duhaime’s momentum in some regions spells trouble as a potential four-way race could blur the lines and make the outcome hardly predictable. The current provincial dynamics point toward a minority government — with voters so divided, winning a majority will be difficult for any party. In a fragmented field with close contests in many ridings, a party could form government with barely 30 per cent of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, a new Pallas Data poll now places the Liberals at 27 per cent, just three points behind the PQ, which dropped four points in just a month.

Sensing momentum slipping as concerns about sovereignty continue to grow among the population, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon tried to reassure voters this week. For the first time, he opened the door to postponing a third referendum until after Donald Trump leaves the White House, technically in 2029.

That is, if the Bully-in-Chief doesn’t find a way to seek another term — or if another MAGA leader aligned with his ideology doesn’t succeed him.

PSPP is skating on thin ice here. His pledge to hold a referendum during a first mandate energized and mobilized the PQ’s base in a way not seen in decades. Backtracking would kill the morale of his troops just months before a crucial and decisive electoral battle.

At the same time, that very commitment remains the main barrier for many voters.

Last week, an Angus Reid poll showed only 26 per cent of Quebecers would vote “Yes” on sovereignty, and just 15 per cent identify as hard-core supporters of Quebec independence.

In other words, thanks in part to Trump, sovereignty is increasingly becoming a burden which could sink the PQ’s chances of seizing power.

But if you want to win an eventual referendum, you first have to qualify with a majority in a general election.

It’s still too early to tell which party will stand atop the podium. But if the next election turns out to be a referendum on a referendum, it could cost PSPP the gold medal at the finish line.

Raphaël Melançon is a public affairs consultant and political analyst. A former journalist, he previously worked as a political adviser at all three levels of government.

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