The war began with airstrikes and missiles. But the turning point may come from the economy. In this fight, Iran is trying to win by raising the cost, and oil is its strongest card.

Iran’s idea is simple: it cannot match the United States in air power or spending, so it will make the war expensive until Washington and the world feel the pressure. That is why oil prices matter more than speeches. A military campaign can last for weeks. A jump in fuel prices creates political trouble every day.

Iran is trying to widen the confrontation and keep markets nervous. The goal is not only to hit targets, but to turn the Gulf into a risk zone.

When the Strait of Hormuz feels unsafe, the impact is immediate: oil prices rise, shipping insurance becomes more expensive, and markets panic. That is how a regional war becomes a global problem.

When the Strait of Hormuz feels unsafe, the impact is immediate: oil prices rise, shipping insurance becomes more expensive, and markets panic. That is how a regional war becomes a global problem.

This also explains why Trump’s recent remarks aimed at investors and voters, not only at Tehran. When oil rises fast, US politics reacts fast. Higher prices at the pump quickly become a domestic crisis. So Washington tries to calm markets while keeping military pressure in place.

Iran answered with a clear message: it will not let Washington decide when the war ends or on what terms. Tehran is signaling that it will not accept a ceasefire on someone else’s schedule. Even that message alone can push prices up again.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s main energy routes. A large share of Gulf oil and gas exports passes through it on the way to Asia and Europe. Even limited disruption can lift oil prices, raise insurance costs, and slow shipping. That pressure spreads into transport, food supply chains, and inflation.

Iran does not need to announce a........

© Middle East Monitor