The elections have ended, but the real struggle has just begun. The outcome of the elections is not in doubt, because Iraq’s political landscape is not shaped by ballots, but by militias, regional loyalties and the wealth now concentrated in the hands of a sectarian oligarchy. Iran-backed militias did not enter the elections to compete; they entered to reshape power from within the state. They have learned that remaining in government is far more lucrative than remaining outside it.

In this landscape, election results are meaningless. Since 2003, Iraq’s political experience has shown that winners are excluded and losers are accommodated. The Sadrist movement won in 2021 but was sidelined. In 2010, Iyad Allawi’s bloc won, but Nouri al-Maliki refused to relinquish power. Elections in Iraq do not establish new foundations; they merely recycle existing dominance.

Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, now presented as a proponent of “good governance”, emerged from a sectarian environment overseen from abroad. He was not chosen for his Iraqi identity, but for his Shia affiliation and his acceptance by Tehran and the Najaf clerical establishment. The core of the Dawa Party, of which Sudani is a member, has always prioritised sect over nation. How could it produce anything other than the sectarian shallowness of Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Nouri al-Maliki?

In an article titled “Iraq........

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