The escalating confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other is often framed in familiar strategic language: deterrence, nuclear threats and regional security. Israel argues that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capability is an existential necessity, while Washington portrays its involvement as part of a broader effort to stabilise the Middle East and contain a revisionist power.

Yet these explanations capture only the immediate logic of the conflict. Beneath the battlefield calculations lies a deeper historical problem: the assumption that Iran can be strategically weakened or neutralised through external pressure. If history offers any serious guidance, this assumption may be fundamentally flawed.

The latest escalation—marked by Israeli and American strikes on Iranian military infrastructure and Tehran’s missile retaliation—has rapidly transformed into a regional crisis. Maritime routes in the Gulf have become vulnerable, allied militias across the region have mobilised, and the spectre of wider war looms over energy markets and global stability. What began as a limited confrontation now threatens to reshape the entire geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

But the significance of this conflict cannot be understood solely through military developments. It reflects a deeper contest over legitimacy, power and the future political order of the region.

For Washington and Tel Aviv, Iran represents the most persistent challenger to the security architecture that has defined the Middle East since the late twentieth century—an order built around Israeli military superiority and alliances with pro-Western Arab governments.

For Washington and Tel Aviv, Iran represents the most persistent challenger to the security architecture that has defined the Middle East since the late twentieth century—an order built around Israeli military superiority and alliances with pro-Western Arab governments.

Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Tehran has openly rejected this arrangement, presenting itself as a force of resistance against Western dominance and Israeli strategic primacy.

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Over the decades, Iran has constructed a network of political and military relationships stretching from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen. Through these alliances, Tehran has developed an influence that far........

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