Lebanon’s electricity crisis is usually attributed to fuel shortages, financial collapse and institutional failure. All three explanations are valid, but they are incomplete. The deeper problem is that Lebanon remains an energy island in a region increasingly shaped by cross-border grids, gas corridors and flexible electricity markets.

Lebanese households and businesses have learned to survive without reliable public electricity. Diesel generators filled the first gap; rooftop solar panels and batteries are filling the next. Yet survival is not energy security. Lebanon’s electricity supply may have become more decentralised, but the country has not become less vulnerable.

Lebanon must now turn connectivity into an instrument of diplomacy. This does not mean replacing one foreign dependency with another. It means creating diversified relationships through which domestic generation, regional electricity, renewable energy and potential offshore resources can reinforce one another. For Lebanon, energy diplomacy should convert geographic exposure into strategic options.

A solar transition born of necessity

Lebanon’s solar expansion is remarkable because it was not primarily driven by a successful national transition strategy. It emerged from necessity. As public electricity supplies declined and fuel subsidies were removed, households, businesses and municipalities invested in their own systems.

Lebanon’s National Renewable Energy Action Plan for 2025–2030 estimates that cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity exceeded 1,000 megawatts by the end of 2023. Around 777 MW were added during 2021 and 2022 alone, largely through decentralised household and business investment. Solar power accounted for approximately 13 per cent of the electricity generation mix in 2022.

This expansion demonstrates social resilience, but it has also created a divided energy system. Households with capital, suitable rooftops or access to financing could purchase a measure of energy independence. Poorer families remained dependent on an unreliable public grid or expensive private generators. Lebanon has consequently developed private resilience for those who can afford it and continuing public vulnerability for those who cannot.

Thousands of separate solar installations cannot perform all the functions of a national electricity system. They cannot........

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