The global energy transition is often framed as a technical and environmental necessity — a gradual shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy in response to climate change. In the Middle East, however, this transition is neither linear nor apolitical. It is a deeply geopolitical process, reshaping power relations, alliances, and diplomatic behaviour in a region where energy has always been inseparable from politics. The critical question today is not whether the Middle East is entering an era of energy transition, but whether this process is, in practice, leading to a redistribution of power.

For decades, energy served as a cornerstone of a Western-centric global order in the Middle East. Oil and gas flows underpinned strategic alliances, security arrangements, and political influence, particularly between the United States and major producers in the Gulf. That model is now under sustained pressure. Rising Asian demand, China’s expanding strategic role, Russia’s persistence as an energy actor, and diversification strategies pursued by regional states are steadily eroding the traditional energy–security bargain.

Despite growing investment in renewables, oil and gas have not lost their geopolitical relevance. Assessments by the International Energy Agency and OPEC consistently indicate that hydrocarbons will continue to shape global energy security for decades, especially in geopolitically sensitive regions such as the Middle East. Recent global crises have reinforced this reality rather than diminished it.

The war in Ukraine provided a stark reminder of how quickly energy can be repoliticised. IEA market reports and European energy policy assessments highlighted how supply disruptions translated directly into geopolitical leverage. Energy once again became a strategic........

© Middle East Monitor