Restraint is hardest when it looks like weakness. Israel’s 18 August strike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase, followed by direct Israeli-Turkish warnings, has revived a dangerous question: are Turkiye and Israel approaching war in Syria?

Ankara should avoid the arena where Israeli power is strongest. Turkiye is gaining ground without attacking Israel: consolidating a friendly Damascus government, extending influence through Lebanon and the Red Sea, deepening defence ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and improving Washington relations. War endangers those gains.

“Winning” does not mean defeating or encircling Israel. Turkiye is accumulating positional advantage at acceptable cost, while Israel struggles to convert military superiority into a favourable regional order. Preserving that asymmetry is the strategic objective.

Syria: where the two strategies collide

The rivalry in Syria is structural because the two states seek opposite outcomes. Turkiye wants a territorially unified state able to control its borders, integrate armed groups, suppress Islamic State and the PKK-linked threat, and enable refugee returns. With a 900-kilometre border, Ankara pays most for renewed fragmentation.

Israel seeks security through a constrained Syria: weak air defences, limited heavy weapons, no hostile forces near the occupied Golan, and freedom of military action. Its concerns are understandable, but repeated strikes and Israel’s southwestern presence obstruct reconstruction of the state Turkiye considers essential to regional order.

The clash became explicit in April 2025, when Turkish teams assessed T-4, Palmyra and Hama air facilities during discussions on deeper defence cooperation and Israel heavily struck those sites. Technical talks in Azerbaijan reduced accidental-clash risks but did not resolve the dispute.

Abu al-Duhur repeated the pattern. Syrian officials reported a Turkish visit before the strike, though Ankara denied a delegation was present immediately before or during it. Israel alleged an impending deployment; Syria and Turkiye denied any base. Despite operational uncertainty, Israel signalled readiness to use force against Syrian military recovery assisted by Turkiye.

This is a challenge, not a case for war. Israel can crater runways but cannot build a stable Syrian state, remove Turkiye’s geographic proximity, or erase Damascus’s need for Turkish trade, training, energy and reconstruction. Time favours Ankara if........

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