The fragile architecture of Trump's Iran deal
There is something almost surreal about the way the world is being asked to receive the announcement of a supposed peace deal between the United States and Iran. One social media post appears, and a triumphant declaration follows. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, peace is at hand, and "the war is over!" Markets react, oil falls, and television studios fill with experts. And yet, beneath the noise, the most important question remains unanswered. What exactly has been agreed upon?
The announcement attributed to US President Donald Trump is being sold as a breakthrough that will end a conflict that has shaken the Middle East, disrupted global energy supplies and brought the region to the edge of a wider catastrophe.
Pakistan, through Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has claimed a major diplomatic success and deserves credit for bringing the parties to the table if the agreement ultimately survives. But diplomacy is measured not by announcements alone, but by implementation. And that is where the trouble begins.
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Iran has signalled acceptance of a framework and has spoken of negotiations. It has spoken of ending military operations and, most importantly, of Lebanon as an integral component of the agreement. Yet Iran has not produced the kind of comprehensive public articulation one would expect from a state that has just concluded the most consequential agreement in decades.
The ambiguity is, as always, striking. Even more striking........
