There are moments in geopolitics when abstractions collapse into hard reality, and right now we are witnessing one of them. For years, India has spoken the language of strategic autonomy with almost ritualistic confidence. It could buy oil from Russia under Western sanctions, maintain ties with Iran, deepen defence relations with Israel, and still claim a careful, balanced posture in West Asia. It was a neat story. But now, it is being stress-tested in the most unforgiving way possible.

The Strait of Hormuz has ceased to be just a chokepoint on a map. It has become a lever of power. Iran appears to be exercising selective control over maritime traffic, allowing some vessels through while constraining others. Even if one discounts the more speculative claims, including those about payments in Chinese yuan, the underlying shift is undeniable.

Passage is no longer routine. It is discretionary. And discretionary control changes everything. 

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India's exposure here is structural, not incidental. Roughly 40 per cent of its crude imports transit through Hormuz. Overall, India's import dependence stands close to 88 per cent. That is not a vulnerability you can wish away with diplomatic statements, but it is baked into the system. There is, however, a nuance that is often missed.

India is not equally vulnerable across all energy segments. On crude, it has built some resilience. Diversification toward Russian supplies and incremental sourcing from outside the Gulf has given it some manoeuvrability. The government has even indicated that a significant share of current imports is now routed outside Hormuz. But LPG is where the real fault line........

© Mathrubhumi English