On the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a discussion titled  "Understanding Russia - the key to Ukraine's victory and Europe's security" took place in Berlin, Germany.

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Representatives on behalf of Ukraine, Germany and Russia were present.. But the Russian side was represented this time not by a member of the political opposition in exile, but by a soldier actively fighting for Ukraine as part of a Russian volunteer unit in the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

The goal was to uncover the true potential of the Russian resistance movements,  and to identify which networks are capable of meaningful action against the Kremlin and, crucially, who can deliver real results.

This is especially important at a time when European intelligence services do not believe in the Kremlin's readiness for peace in Ukraine, and when clear warnings of expanding Russian aggression against Europe and NATO allies are only increasing.

Modern Russia functions as a revisionist state with a military economy and imperial ideology, in which war is a tool for internal stability and a guarantee of regime preservation. That is why the Kremlin regime must be defeated militarily in Ukraine, which will reduce its military potential and its ability and willingness to wage new wars.

The available data from sociological studies published inside Russia are not optimistic.

In January 2026, the Russian independent sociological centre Levada-Centre recorded a slight but significant increase in support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine by 3 points to 76%. Of these, 43% "definitely" support and 33% "rather" support the actions of the Russian army.

At the same time, the proportion of those who believe that it is necessary to move to peace negotiations decreased by 5 points to 61%. Another 59% believe that if peace with Ukraine cannot be achieved yet, Russia should increase its strikes on Ukraine, in particular with the use of new types of weapons.

Of course, it is difficult to fully trust polling conducted in an authoritarian country where you can be detained by the police for holding a poster with the word "peace" on it. In 2025 alone, Russia mobilised more than 400,000 soldiers in its war against their so-called "brotherly country", indicating strong support for continued aggression among ordinary Russians.

Opposition activists counted 401 anti-war and anti-mobilisation actions across Russia in 2025, two-thirds of which were solitary pickets or flower-laying ceremonies, while the rest were the distribution of guerrilla leaflets and acts of sabotage.

In a country of 144–146 million people, that amounts to a flicker of dissent rather than a mass movement capable of shifting the Kremlin’s course. .

The small Russian opposition abroad has little influence on citizens who remain in Russia. And, some opposition figures do not renounce imperial narratives and even criticise Western sanctions imposed because of Russian aggression.

Whether it makes sense for the West to invest in such activities - and whether they have any real prospect of weakening the Russian regime, ending the war in Ukraine, or shielding Europe from further conflict - is, in truth, a rhetorical question.

However, when discussing Russian opposition we cannot ignore the significance of  Russian volunteer formations such as the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Siberian Battalion are fighting as part of the Ukrainian Defence Forces. Their  aim is not only to overthrow Putin's regime, but also to transform Russia into a free and democratic country.

These volunteers are an example of the fact that there is active opposition and real struggle against the regime. They openly oppose the Kremlin's imperial policy and appeal to the conscience of their compatriots.

Russian volunteers are actively involved in hot spots on the front line, conducting raids in the border regions of the Russian Federation, carrying out sabotage, in particular blowing up warehouses and equipment. They are tying up Russian reserves and degrading Moscow’s military capacity, but demonstrating - with sacrifice -that armed resistance to the regime is possible.

In particular, they refute the Kremlin's propaganda claims about full support for the so-called “special military operation” on the part of Russians, as well as fighting against propaganda narratives about "Nazism" in Ukraine.

Maximilian Andronnikov (“Caesar”), a deputy commander of Ukraine’s Freedom of Russia Legion,  noted in an interview that he recalled feeling a profound shame and personal responsibility for the actions of the Russian authorities on the very first day of the full-scale invasion. He saw no option to remain on the sidelines or rely solely on political rhetoric and instead, he chose to take up arms on Ukraine’s side.

Caesar emphasises that he considers his participation in the war on the side of Kyiv as a way of moral responsibility, and his  defence of Ukraine is also the  struggle for the future of his own country.

There are bright and strong personalities among Russian volunteers who can fill the leadership niche in the Russian opposition, and their support and informational reinforcement of this effort is a strategic decision for both Europe and Ukraine.

The volunteers have already taken responsibility for the struggle.

The main question for Western partners now is who to bet on: the political opposition in exile or those Russians who are putting up real resistance to the regime and proving every day that they are ready to fight for a democratic Russia.

Olesia Horiainova is a co-founder of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center (USCC), a think-tank based in Kyiv, Ukraine

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