By Malik Daniyal

Jammu & Kashmir’s economic outlook for 2024–25 looks optimistic on paper. With real GSDP projected to grow at 7.06%, and nominal figures expected to climb over 11%, the region seemingly signals a return to macroeconomic stability.

The per capita income, too, is set to rise by 10.6%, crossing ₹1.54 lakh. These numbers, tabled in the latest Economic Survey by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, make for confident headlines. But they don’t convey the discomfort beneath this so-called recovery. Despite the outward sheen of economic progress, the lived reality for many in J&K remains unchanged.

Growth, by its very definition, must be inclusive. Yet in this case, the figures orbit high above the households they claim to uplift. Can a 7% GDP growth rate, without structural correction, deliver not just jobs—but dignity?

The composition of this growth shows that the tertiary sector dominates, contributing over 61% to GSDP—driven largely by tourism and services. Agriculture and manufacturing trail behind, contributing 20% and 18.3%, respectively.

A region with a deep agrarian and craft-based identity is now overwhelmingly service-reliant, exposing it to volatility. Tourism may have hit record numbers in 2024, but its gains remain unequally distributed. Luxury operators thrive while peripheral players, like artisans and small-scale hoteliers, continue to struggle.

This service-sector tilt is further compromised by the informal nature of employment. Most tourism-linked jobs are seasonal, underpaid, and devoid of any social security net. Weavers in Srinagar still earn wages frozen at 2019 levels, even though handicraft exports have reportedly increased. What kind of growth celebrates exports while the exporter’s household runs on 5-year-old pay?

The same contradiction plays out in the industrial data. Over 6.37 lakh jobs have been “created” through 1,984 new industrial units since 2019. But a majority of these jobs are in low-value micro-enterprises—food processing units, small packaging outlets, and ancillary services—which depend heavily on government incentives. Such growth may inflate job numbers, but it does little for income security or human capital development. It builds volume, not value.

This fragility is compounded by restricted credit flow. J&K’s Credit-Deposit Ratio stands at 62.01%, significantly lower than the national average. This suggests banks remain hesitant to lend, especially to small........

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