RBC Economics just put out a detailed report on housing starts in Canada, and it does not look good for Ontario. Canada’s housing construction is booming, but one province, specifically, is lagging behind.

But let’s start with the bright spot, Canada overall. According to RBC, housing starts have hit record highs over the past four years, topping 1 million units in total. In the first half of 2025 alone, annualized starts averaged 250,000 units above the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 200,000 units according to RBC.

But that overall strength masks a sharp contrast — Ontario is seeing a noticeable slowdown. Housing starts in the province to steeply since mid 2024, particularly in the greater Toronto area.

As we know, the GTA is seeing a huge collapse in its pre-construction condo market, which means that buyers aren’t lining up to invest in these projects, and therefore builders aren’t going to build them. But outside of the province of Ontario, it’s not like those markets really rely on the pre-construction sales industry to keep them going. So, if everybody else can build without a pre-construction industry, why can’t Ontario?

Data from CMHC sources show housing starts in Q1 in 2025 dropped to just 12,000 units, down about 20 per cent from the previous quarter, marking the lowest quarter, marking the lowest quarter since 2029 in the fallout of the global financial crisis.

So, it really seems like here Ontario is behaving like it’s in a recession and not just the construction industry. Toronto’s unemployment is almost 10 per cent and Ontario’s population growth is actually shrinking because people are leaving the province.

Now, zooming in on Toronto reveals a little bit more of an alarming shift. For the first five months of 2025, Toronto housing starts plunged 58 per cent and the rest of the GTA were down 29 per ent compared to the same period in 2024.

One of the big reasons for this........

© iPolitics