In January I argued that alongside the moral imperative, British support for Ukraine bought us critical time to prepare for a future Russian attack – degrading Russia’s military while allowing the West to rearm and prepare.

That timeline was never unlimited. Now, events in Iran are beginning to compress it.

Three dynamics drive this shift. First, Russia is under less pressure. Second, the West is more constrained. And third, as Western deterrence becomes less credible, Putin is more likely to test it.

Let’s start with Russia, who is now under less financial pressure. An acute supply shortage driven by the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices sharply higher. As one of the world’s largest producers, Russia stands to benefit. In the first 12 days of the war alone, Russia raked in $150m a day in extra revenue from surging prices, according to the Financial Times.

Washington has also helped ease the pressure on Moscow, relaxing sanctions that had prevented others – like India – from buying Russian oil. This comes just as sanctions and the war began to bite: plans to cut 10 per cent of “non-essential” Russian spending have already been dropped. And there is no guarantee this relief will be short-lived: if the conflict endures, or Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, higher prices will persist.

Russia also benefits in less direct ways. While fighting one war in Ukraine, it is........

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