Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have always had a unique relationship — a tango of praises and sanctions, as if each side were waiting for the next twist in the ongoing geopolitical rollercoaster. Just when it seemed they might make peace, the Trump administration pulled out the sanctions card again, this time slapping Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, with measures that would make even their notoriously unpredictable relationship seem unsurprising. While Washington wants to tighten the screws on Moscow’s energy sector, for countries like India and China, the fallout is about to get more complicated.

Rosneft and Lukoil are central to Russia’s energy strategy, with their combined output accounting for nearly half of the country’s total oil production and a significant portion of global supply. These sanctions represent a sharp escalation of US policy towards Russia, which, over the past few years, has fluctuated between attempts at diplomacy and direct economic punishment. For India, however, the sanctions carry immediate and far-reaching consequences, not just for energy supply but also for how the country navigates its position between global powers.

Rosneft and Lukoil are far from minor players in the global energy arena. Last year, Rosneft produced approximately 3.7 million barrels per day of crude, about 3.3 per cent of global supply. Rosneft has extensive ties to India, including owning a 49 per cent stake in Nayara Energy, which operates a 400,000 bpd refinery in Gujarat. The refinery processes mostly Russian crude and, under existing EU sanctions, has already seen reduced output. Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, added another 1.6 million barrels per day to global supply last year. The........

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