Global trade is entering its most turbulent phase since the creation of the WTO. The US, the EU and China — once the engines of globalisation — are now its biggest disruptors. The US and EU use access to their massive markets as a pressure tool. China, meanwhile is using its dominance over production, supply chains, and critical minerals to keep other economies dependent.

The US and China are locked in a fierce contest of economic power. Washington is tightening controls on exports of advanced technology — especially semiconductors and chipmaking tools — to slow China’s rise. Beijing has struck back by curbing exports of rare earths and critical minerals vital for defence, electronics, and clean energy. This tit-for-tat has turned trade and technology into weapons, pushing the world toward a prolonged supply chain standoff that may soon evolve into a full-blown economic cold war.

In this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, India must chart a clear strategy to protect its economic interests and seize new opportunities.

The US, once the champion of free trade, is now undermining the system it created. The “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2 — added on top of earlier duties — broke WTO rules and turned tariffs into a weapon for political bargaining. Because tariffs target specific countries, companies are rerouting shipments through low-tariff markets instead of buying from the most efficient suppliers. India’s exports to the US in September are 37 per cent less than in May, a direct........

© Indian Express