Washington has a habit of turning strategic problems into procurement problems. If only the permitting moved faster. If only more capital flowed in. Get those right, the thinking went, and the market would handle the rest.

It won’t. It can’t. Because there is no free market here to handle anything.

The global trade in critical minerals has never operated on the terms economists prefer. Deliberate overproduction and dumping are designed to kill competitors before they reach scale. When the competition folds, prices recover, dependence hardens and Beijing holds the lever. Private investors draw the rational conclusion that betting against a state-backed producer is a losing proposition. They’re right.

But something has changed. China is not just manipulating prices anymore. It is winding down raw material exports by design.

The reason is simple. A kilogram of dysprosium sold as powder earns hundreds of dollars. The same kilogram incorporated into an electric vehicle motor helps sell a $40,000 car. Countries seeking export revenue sell commodities. Countries seeking industrial dominance sell finished products.

On April 4, 2025, Beijing placed seven heavy rare earth elements — terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, scandium, and three others — under mandatory export licensing. Several carmakers cut production within weeks.

In October, Beijing expanded the controls to five additional elements. When November brought a partial suspension, the industry exhaled. The original April regime was never touched —........

© Independent Journal Review