5 Supply-Chain Experts on How Companies Can Navigate Iran War Disruptions

With prices volatile and key shipping routes at risk, here’s where companies should look first to understand exposure and limit damage.

BY MELISSA ANGELL, SENIOR STAFF WRITER @MELISSKAWRITES

Illustration: Inc; Photo: Getty Images

Oil prices continue to ricochet, raising fresh concerns about supply‑chain disruptions that could ripple through the global economy—and into businesses far beyond energy itself. That uncertainty was reinforced this week when Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there were “no guarantees” prices would fall in the weeks ahead.

Prices remain elevated in large part because the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint that transports roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply—remains effectively closed, with no clear signs it will reopen soon. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has described keeping the strait shut as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” raising the risk of a prolonged disruption. Deutsche Bank has warned that oil could surge toward $200 a barrel if Iran successfully enforces a full closure.

Oil was hovering above $102 a barrel as of Tuesday afternoon, and some experts say the world should brace for prices in the $140 to $200 range. That kind of spike would ripple quickly through supply chains, pushing up costs for food, medicine, packaging, transportation, and consumer goods. Spot rates for air cargo are climbing, with rates to North America up 58 percent, according to data from BSI Consulting, and container shipping rates jumping eight percent globally. Business owners could see prices rise between four to seven percent, according to Aaron Lober, a manufacturing intelligence lead at CADDI, an AI data manufacturing platform. 

For businesses, the implications go well beyond fuel costs. Knowing where your company is exposed—across suppliers, logistics, and pricing—is the first step toward protecting it in what could be an extended period of volatility.

Here’s what supply chain experts advise businesses should be monitoring amid the Iran war.

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