Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting of the Presidential Council for Strategic Development and National Projects at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Dec. 8, 2025.

Vladimir Putin’s victory against Ukraine is not inevitable, according to war experts, no matter what he tells Donald Trump.

The US president is currently trying to negotiate a quick end to the conflict, even if it means rewarding Russia for its aggression and causing major upset in Europe.

Trump told POLITICO that Russia is unquestionably in the stronger negotiating position right now and has “always” had the upper hand because it’s a “much bigger country” and “much stronger in that sense”.

While praising Ukraine for its “bravery and for the fighting and all of that”, the US president insisted that “at some point, size will win”.

These are clear Kremlin talking points which Putin and his team have been parroting ever since launching the invasion in February 2022.

But Trump is overlooking how, after almost four years of intense fighting, Putin still controls only a fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign territory – despite wanting to take it over entirely.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank warned that the Kremlin is trying to achieve several of Putin’s maximalist war aims through a negotiated settlement with Trump right now because “Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield”.

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