The madness of the 2020s just does not end. Each crisis looks worse than the previous one. The Trumpian bullying on trade has morphed into physical abuse of global infrastructure, putting both energy and food security for billions at risk. In a fully unpredictable world, where self-interest comes first, India needs to put on its energy and food security oxygen mask with long-term solutions, not band-aids. And we, as citizens, must prepare for a hard year ahead on inflation, markets and overall chaos. The journey from February to March 2026 shows how fast a good story can turn precarious. What looked like a launchpad year for a higher Indian growth trajectory is now quite the reverse. The Goldilocks moment of low inflation, above 7% growth, a comfortable stack of foreign reserves, a declining fiscal deficit, and a low current account deficit is under threat as the world reels from the West Asian fuel supply disruption.

The vitals of the Indian economy are already showing stress. The rupee is falling, bond yields are up, stock markets have lost almost 10% over the past month. As fear and uncertainty get amplified on social media, I will attempt to answer very simply some of the questions that the non-finance people are asking.

Why is the rupee falling? Because India needs more dollars to buy each unit of fuel it imports from abroad. Oil prices have risen sharply over a month and can go even higher. As we pay more dollars, the price in terms of the amount in rupees needed to buy a single dollar rises. This has also cascaded, given the downward trajectory of the rupee over the past year due........

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