The international system is undergoing a profound transformation. The certainties of the post-World War II order — anchored in the UN, Bretton Woods institutions, and a rules-based multilateral framework — are buckling under pressure. What appears to be emerging in its place is a more transactional and interest-driven global order, shaped by spheres of influence and great power bargains reminiscent of the 19th century’s Congress of Berlin and the Cold War doctrines of George Kennan and Henry Kissinger’s realpolitik.

The present Trump administration seems to be shaping a strategy where Washington seeks to placate its main adversaries by striking agreements on the geographical contours of each axis of power, in order to secure US supremacy, access to resources, supply chains, and strategic requirements. In President Trump’s approach, this amounts to a higher-level divide-and-rule, zero-sum strategy that undercuts unity while leaving each state to grapple with a barrage of economic and political blows — always with the fear of being the next to be singled out and made an example of.

In this emerging order, there are no guarantees and few enduring norms. States can no longer rely on fixed rules or predictable alignments; instead, they must manage........

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