After the new US Administration took office in 2025, the policies announced signalled that the old global economic order had ruptured. The post-World War II system — built broadly around comparative advantage, multilateral trade rules and institutions such as the WTO — gave way to a more transactional world of beggar thy neighbour and might is right.

Within months, several assumptions underpinning the global order were broken. Tariffs were weaponised. Industrial installed capacity was weaponised. Access to critical minerals, large language models, and semiconductors was curtailed. Wars disrupted energy supplies, shipping routes, and supply chains. Economic security and national security became inseparable. Sanctions could be imposed or withdrawn as part of transactional deal-making. The distinction between allies and adversaries blurred. The new sources of power were increasingly clear: economic and military might, nuclear capability, control over critical raw materials and technologies, and influence over dollar-based payment systems.

Indian industry better wake up — there is a major threat for “business as usual” and an extraordinary opportunity for those that can pivot.

First, a short historical tour. India’s economic policy adopted at Independence created a fair degree of path dependency. India’s growth model was highly impacted by the fact, that it along with just another 20 countries, offered its citizens universal adult franchise in 1947. As with all democracies, its polity had to be very responsive to the electorate. So, the voter demanded and obtained subsidies, support prices, and welfare........

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