The Alaska summit between American President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have ended inconclusively, but it clearly indicated that if the Ukraine war ends during Trump’s presidency, Ukraine will likely have to sacrifice a part of its territory. The usual aggression that Trump displays when meeting other world leaders was hardly present when he met Putin; if anything, there was a great deal of chemistry between them.

In the run-up to the summit, Trump had warned of “severe consequences” if Putin continued the Ukraine war after the summit, but that appears to be an empty threat now. As a matter of fact, Trump seems to have gone in the opposite direction. After the summit, Trump agreed with Putin that the best way to end the war was through a peace settlement — not a ceasefire, which Ukraine, Europe, and even the US had preferred prior to the summit, but not Russia. The apparent rapport between the two leaders and Trump’s reversal on the ceasefire issue suggest that Trump is likely to, going forward, show more understanding of the Russian position than the Ukrainian one.

Apart from the growing certainty, underscored by this summit, that the war is likely to end on Russia’s terms, the rest is just noise and drama — including, it seems, Trump’s recent threat to impose an additional 25% duty on Indian goods for buying Russian oil.

A key reason Russia is unlikely to give up the captured Ukrainian territory........

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