For the first time in its postwar history, Japan will elect a woman as the Prime Minister (PM). Sanae Takaichi, a veteran conservative politician secured the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s presidency, and if the Diet (Japan’s parliament) endorses her for the PM post, she will break a barrier that has stood firm for nearly eight decades.

Her election to the LDP presidency was a surprise to many, given opinion polls suggested that Koizumi Shinjiro, the youthful agriculture minister and reformist star, would emerge as the frontrunner. Koizumi represented generational renewal and enjoyed strong public backing. Yet, the LDP’s factional arithmetic, grassroots loyalties, and conservative instincts produced a different outcome.

The LDP presidency is decided in a two-round contest. In the first round, both parliamentarians (295 votes) and grassroots members nationwide (295 votes) cast ballots. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two advance to a runoff. In this second round, parliamentarians vote again, while the grassroots’ role shrinks to 47 votes, one per prefecture — giving parliamentary factions the decisive sway.

Koizumi appealed to MPs and urban voters through his reformist image, but Takaichi secured the loyalty of the conservative prefectural chapters — the party’s backbone.

Takaichi’s triumph however is not necessarily........

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