This article appears as part of the Winds of Change newsletter.

We know that we are likely to feel this war in our pockets. There has already been plenty of coverage of what the US-Israel war on Iran has meant for oil and gas. Monday saw the biggest spike in Brent crude prices in six years, heating oil costs have surged savagely, and analysts have suggested the average annual household energy bill could jump by £160 when the next price cap is set in July.

Meanwhile experts have warned that we may see prices at the fuel pump rise as high as £2 per litre; holidays look set to soar because of jet fuel costs; and Donald Trump is telling the world that surging prices are “a very small price to pay... for USA, and World, Safety and Peace.” All of which comes with a sharp ouch of pain - albeit one that pales to insignificance compared with the horror for those living with the war.

But energy and transport are not the only household bills that look set to be hit. The war is coming for our supermarket shop too. Farmers face soaring fertiliser and fuel prices, which if the war is protracted, will undoubtedly be passed on to the consumer.

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Why the war looks set to hit your grocery bills

There are several reasons for this. One is that it will drive up the cost of red diesel, used by farmers. Prices reported by Farmer Weekly this week showed the fuel was up more than 20p/litre on the week to 98.37p/litre for a 5,000-litre delivery in the north-east and Scotland.

The other is that not only is the price of nitrogen fertiliser closely linked with that of the natural gas (methane) from which it is made, but around a third of the world's supply is exported through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the UK, we produce only 40% of our nitrogen fertiliser requirement, importing the rest. These chemicals are vital, produced from methane by a process invented by German scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch early last century, they are what created the Green Revolution, increasing crop yields, and sustaining human populations to grow.

But nitrogen fertiliser a villain as well as a hero in that it is also responsible for soil degradation, river pollution and climate change. The EAT–Lancet Commission’s 2025 report warned that nitrogen use had pushed the planet beyond safe operating limits and called for surplus nitrogen to be halved by 2050; meanwhile, nitrogen fertiliser output continues to rise.

The war in the Middle East is already disrupting global fertiliser markets. It has had an immediate impact on nitrogen fertiliser prices, which have now gone up by almost 30% on last month, and over 50% on last year.

A report by Rabobank predicted that the current conflict to have a deeper and longer-lasting impact on fertiliser markets than the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025. You may not remember that impact, but its ripple effects hit farmers last year, and have already have been seen in our grocery bills.

Fertiliser is not the only issue

Meanwhile, Reuters reported this week that UK grocery inflation has edged up to 4.3 per cent. Wheat, palm and soybean oil prices rose, according to a Bloomberg report, which quoted  David Whitcomb, founder of Peak Trading Research, who observed, “These moves look less like a one-week spike and more like the early phase of a sustained shift higher in prices.”

Fertiliser isn’t the only way the war may add to our food bills. Other food commodities are likely to be affected as exports to Europe are redirected, creating longer transit times, and adding on costs. Asian prawns may rise in price as they are re-routed. The cost of plastic packaging, which is manufactured from crude oil, is also likely to climb.

War, anywhere in the world, but particularly where it affects shipping routes and commodity supply, is a reminder of our vulnerability and interconnection. We’ve been here before – following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, wheat prices surged -  and we have been shown similar lessons.

Winds of change on how the war in Iran may affect food bills (Image: mikroman6/Damian Shields)

Britain's fragile food security

We should also remember that war is not the only factor that can leave us vulnerable. A recent Defra report into national security highlighted the need for significant increases in UK food system resilience in a world of climate change and biodiversity threats, saying that without them “it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food”.

It painted a bleak picture, saying: “The UK relies on global markets for its food and for fertiliser. The UK imports 40% of its food from overseas, with over 25% coming from Europe. The UK is heavily reliant on imports for fresh fruit, vegetables and sugar. Animal farming at current levels is unsustainable without imports - soy from South America makes up 18% of produced animal feed... The UK is not self-sufficient in fertiliser - for both nitrogen and phosphorus it is partially reliant on imports. Global phosphorus production is dominated by China and Morocco.”

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Trump has said this war is "pretty much over", but it feels like there is a long way to go and much more pain to be felt.

Of course, we are not suffering like the people of Iran and Lebanon, where more than 1,600 people have been killed since the war was launched. Nor are we likely to suffer like some of the countries in the Global South still more exposed to fertiliser prices and crop risk.

But this is a war that, if protracted, is set to be felt in some way everywhere.

The farmers will be feeling it now, but it is likely that we will not feel the crunch till later. Fertiliser‑driven cost rises would be likely to bite at the next harvest and following ones, leaving a lingering impact even if the direct shock of the war fades.

© Herald Scotland