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With a Yes majority, Swinney should call indyref2 and dare London to stop him

8 12
27.09.2025

This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

There are no rules when it comes to Scotland and the constitution. Unlike Northern Ireland, nothing is enshrined in either agreement or statute which determines how – or even whether – Scotland gets to decide its future.

So why, therefore, should John Swinney play by self-imposed rules which bind him hand and foot, and prevent him advancing independence? The answer is: he shouldn’t.

We live in an era where victory goes to the bold, not the meek and obedient. The SNP has, for years, tied itself in knots over the path to another referendum.

Currently, the First Minister favours repeating the 2011 model of “securing an SNP majority [at the next Scottish election], with at least 65 SNP MSPs”.

Local branches, however, have tabled amendments for the upcoming SNP conference calling for the election to be fought as a “de facto referendum”. In other words, if the SNP and Greens won a majority, that should be “considered a mandate to negotiate independence”.

Not only are they right, but on current polling that majority will come to pass with 74 Green-SNP seats projected for 2026.

Swinney should go one step further, though. If Yes supporting parties won........

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