The Caerphilly by-election signals imminent destruction for Labour, but rather than take the necessary action, the party will just head further right. Analysis by our Writer at Large.

Even Reform's client journalists in the right-wing London media can’t protect Nigel Farage from this bad news.

Sure, they can softball stories about Nathan Gill, once Reform’s top man in Wales, taking bribes from Russia. They can deliberately fail to report Farage cosying up to America’s anti-abortion movement. They can bury stories about the MP Danny Kruger, Reform’s main strategist, promising to put the police under political control should the party win power.

But they cannot sweeten Reform’s failure to win the Caerphilly by-election in Wales, no matter how much they try.

Reform was favourite to win. Its members swaggered around Caerphilly as if victory was guaranteed. Plaid Cymru trashed that narrative, romping home with an astonishing 47% of the vote.

But Reform losing is only part of the story. Caerphilly becomes a scrying mirror in which we can discern the likely shape of British politics over the next year and on into the 2029 general election.

First, Labour and the Conservatives are done. A quarter way into this new century, the old politics is over. The future of politics in each of the home nations and across the UK is now a battle of competing nationalisms.

Reform is the party of English/British nationalism. Sinn Fein is the biggest party in Northern Ireland. The

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