This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter. The Ancient Greeks had the Oracle at Delphi. Modern Scots have the voters of Hamilton. If you want to learn hard truths about the mood in this country, run a by-election in the South Lanarkshire town.

It’s a totemic place for the SNP. In 1967, Winnie Ewing’s by-election success in Hamilton shifted the SNP from the periphery of politics. Today, however, the town is less hallowed ground for Scottish nationalists and more field of woe.

The story which should be taken from the Hamilton result isn’t of Labour’s win, but of SNP defeat. A shot hasn’t just been fired across the SNP’s bows, it’s a cruise missile.

This was the SNP’s battle to lose and lose they did. John Swinney talked up a two-horse race between his party and Reform, dismissing the notion of a Labour win. He looks pretty foolish today.

That the SNP could go down so badly to a Labour Party which has riled and alienated voters since Keir Starmer took office is remarkable.

Labour won the general election with 34%. Today, that’s down across Britain to about 23%. In Hamilton, however, Labour secured almost 32% – barely a change since Starmer took power.

The SNP fell nearly 17%, losing a seat previously held on a majority of 4582.

These are catastrophic figures for the SNP. Even Reform’s rise – it came third on 26% – isn’t as significant. Reform’s vote in Hamilton broadly replicates its UK-wide support.

So what’s happened to the SNP? Well, first of all the nationalists are nowhere near as smart as they think they are.

For a long time, luck........

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