Just how much of a threat to the SNP in Inverness and Nairn is Fergus Ewing? Going by Mr Ewing’s musings about how the SNP will “throw everything” at defeating him (I believe that’s known as ‘campaigning’), and those of myriad commentators who have followed his gradual alienation from the SNP leadership, he’s a significant threat indeed.

But is he? MSPs elected as independents are a rarity, but it has happened. In the early days of devolution, giants of the Scottish home rule and independence movements, Dennis Canavan and Margo MacDonald, carved out their niches in the Scottish Parliament. We even had a doctor-turned-campaigner, Jean Turner, representing Strathkelvin and Bearsden from 2003 until 2007. So, he may win next May, but is it remotely likely?

The argument in favour goes something like this: Mr Ewing is a relatively high-profile MSP who enjoys an outsized share of political media coverage for a backbencher, taking on an unpopular Scottish Government on issues relevant to his Highland constituents and on which his positions are popular, not least regarding the dualling of the notorious A9. As a result, he’s an incumbent with a substantial personal vote in his constituency.

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There is plenty of anecdotal evidence for this, as activists and journalists who have visited the seat, knocked on doors and spoken to people in the street will attest. But I often find that such evidence turns out to be as apocryphal as it is anecdotal.

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