As I write, voters are going to the polls in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election to elect a new MSP following the tragic passing of the SNP’s Christina McKelvie earlier this year. The election has been hotly contested, with heavy hitters including practically the entire Scottish Cabinet, the Scottish Labour front bench, and big names in UK politics like Nigel Farage turning up to campaign for their parties’ candidates.

It has also been hotly contested rhetorically, setting the tone for next year’s Scottish Parliament elections. From attack ads deemed to be racist to ill-informed allegations of sectarianism, we have seen a level of vitriol that, despite the strength of political polarisation in Scotland, we haven’t really seen in our electoral politics in recent years outwith the bilious fringes of the constitutional debate. The result will tell us as much about the state of our politics and the direction it is headed in as the way the campaign has been fought.

Of course, by now you already know the result, so you’ll know which of the following scenarios and their consequences are the most accurate. But let me start with what the national polls tell us ought to have happened, by-election peculiarities – which I’ll come to – notwithstanding. The SNP should have won with around 33% of the vote, down significantly on the 46.2% it won in 2021, with Labour in a narrow second on around 28% of the vote. Reform should have come third with just under 20% of the vote, while the Conservatives should have collapsed to under 10% of the vote. The rest of the vote, around 10%, will have been split among the Greens, Liberal Democrats,........

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