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'Messy' event ramps up uncertainty over interest rates

7 10
14.08.2025

“Messy” was certainly one way of putting it after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee had to vote twice to achieve a definitive result on interest rates last week.

That was the word used by James Lynch, investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, after the result of the voting was announced on Thursday.

The outcome of the meeting - a quarter-point cut in benchmark UK interest rates to 4% - had been expected.

However, it was the revelations on the voting which were eye-catching.

The MPC minutes revealed: “Four members voted in favour of the proposition (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden). Four members (Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) preferred to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%. One member (Alan Taylor) preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.75%.”

A three-way split is not that uncommon at times when there is much debate and difference of opinion over what should be happening with interest rates.

However, a three-way split with the two most popular choices tied is most certainly a rarity.

So how to deal with this?

The minutes declared: “In order to secure a majority decision on Bank Rate, the chair invited the committee to vote on whether: Bank Rate should be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%, or Bank Rate should be maintained at 4.25%.”

They revealed: “Five members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor) voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%. One of these members (Alan Taylor), who would otherwise have preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points, voted for a 0.25 percentage points reduction rather than maintaining Bank Rate. Four members (Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine L Mann and Huw Pill) voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%.”

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