This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

Whether or not they have religious convictions of any kind senior Labour figures would do well to make time for prayer this Easter, ahead of what are likely to be testing elections on May 7 at Holyrood and beyond. 

In government at Westminster, Labour is beset by problems relating to policy, the economy, and continuing fallout from the resignations of both Peter Mandelson and Downing Street Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney. Less than two years on from a landslide general election victory Labour’s fortunes have waned, while the political vista has become highly fragmented.  

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK have dominated UK polling for many months, likewise the SNP in Scotland, with Plaid Cymru out in front in Wales. Then there is the Green Party, still riding the crest of a wave following their triumph at the Gorton and Denton by-election and now highly confident of success in council seats across English metropolitan areas where Labour’s support has long seemed impenetrable. 

Should all of this come to pass, the clamour for Labour to change course will be deafening -  heaping still more pressure on Keir Starmer, who only in February saw off a call from Anas Sarwar to step aside, the Scottish Labour boss saying “too many mistakes” had been made by the Prime Minister. 

Therefore, with what looks very much like a crunch point on the near horizon several questions demand an answer. What would a different set of priorities at the top of government look like, is it conceivable that Starmer could be forced out, and were that to happen, who might be best placed to take the reins?  

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Enter then Angela Rayner, Labour’s former Deputy Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, who moved onto some of this ground when recently addressing a reception held by Mainstream, the new soft-left campaign group styling itself as the ‘home for Labour’s radical realists’. 

In the basement of a pub off Whitehall a confident Rayner worked the crowd of MPs, Peers, special advisers, journalists and others from across the wider Labour movement with easy charm. “I’ve been waiting a long time for this moment”, she joked, having been largely silent since resigning last September over tax arrangements relating to a flat near Brighton (a matter not yet concluded).  

At no point in almost 15 minutes did Rayner mention Starmer by name, nor the question of leadership. What she did say told its own story. First came use of a word so rarely heard from Labour figures these days – “socialism”, “we need to talk about that”, Rayner said, following up with references to the NHS and “a welfare state (built) out of the rubble of the war.”  

Labour in her view, “had become part of the problem”. As Rayner put it, the public “have the impression that we have defended the status quo, rather than challenged it; represented the establishment, not working people, and at worst, we became it.  

“As a party and a movement we cannot hide” she went on, “we cannot just go through the motions in the face of decline, there is no safe ground for us, and we are running out of time. The change that people so wanted so desperately needs to be seen.”

Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer (Image: NQ)

Change, of course, was the headline theme of Labour’s manifesto in 2024 - their central pitch to a country keen to be rid of a largely discredited Conservative administration. 

Yet if this from Rayner was, in part, a vision for a new iteration of Labour, it’s also important to bear in mind that Starmer has been in Downing Street less than two years and is overseeing significant change – for instance lifting hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty while also strengthening workers' rights.  

Notably he also shows no sign of wishing to depart. On the contrary, Starmer has made it known – to friends and colleagues as well as in public – that he is determined to continue in post throughout this Parliament. 

This is by no means far-fetched. For a start the huge economic instability caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran is likely to continue and could well make MPs decide that now is not the moment to junk a Prime Minister doing a solid job in trying circumstances. ‘No time for a novice’ will be the cry from whips and party managers. 

Also, it’s to Starmer’s advantage that there’s no obvious leader in waiting. Andy Burnham, blocked from running in Gorton, is not even in Parliament. Around the Cabinet table perhaps only former leader Ed Miliband and Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, can truly be considered big beasts. Wes Streeting would be highly likely to run but neither he nor Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, would command short odds in a straight fight against Rayner. 

The point really is that any leadership contest would be framed by the fact that the winner would be catapulted instantly into the most senior office in the land. That has not happened since Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair almost 20 years ago, and before that Jim Callaghan, when Harold Wilson suddenly resigned in 1976. In both cases the new man had long experience both of government and senior office. 

Labour has not forced out a sitting Prime Minister since Ramsay MacDonald was expelled from the party over the formation of a National Government during the economic crisis of 1931. 

There's also no guarantee that a new leader would greatly change the party’s fortunes for the better – just ask Tory MPs who ditched Boris Johnson and very quickly regretted doing so.  

Where does all of this leave Labour? Perhaps, in keeping both with Easter and the coming of Spring – hoping for new life and resurrection.

© Herald Scotland