As England and Wales continue to gravitate towards Nigel Farage, Scotland looks likely to turn to the SNP again. But Andy Maciver argues that we should not presume this will always be the case; the natives here are just as restless, but they don’t yet have an alternative they want to vote for.

“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir”, the famous quote by John Maynard Keynes to explain his altered view on monetary policy during the Great Depression, has become oft used in the world of politics.

It has, in fairness, become a useful way for a politician to explain their way out of some policy U-turn or other, and despite its age and the intellect of its inventor, it has something of a common feel. People get it.

It makes it all the more interesting, therefore, that the two established mainstream political parties in the UK, Labour and the Conservatives, are doing such an awful job of understanding that British public opinion is shifting under their feet, and they are failing to change their minds as a result of it.

Whether this is a wilful refusal or whether it is ignorance is moot. What is not moot is that people are changing and establishment politicians are not.

People are changing and establishment politicians are not (Image: Graphic: Damian Shields)

One would imagine they should have noticed. Aggregated polling data currently suggests that Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister, recording a majority win which........

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