Imagine the scenario, students of politics.

A government with four election wins under its belt, having been in power for almost two decades, faces a by-election near the end of its current term in office.

I know what you’re thinking already; they have a bloody nose coming their way, because that’s what electorates do to mid-term governments which have been in power for a long time.

Imagine now that the government in question has faced unprecedented controversy since the last election.

Its leader, until a couple of years ago, was the subject of a long police investigation, and her husband, who ran the governing party, has been charged with embezzlement.

This came hot on the heels of an extraordinary war between this leader and her predecessor, who himself was tried for (and cleared of) attempted rape.

I know what you’re thinking now; this party doesn’t stand a chance at the by-election.

Imagine now, scholar, that the record of this government during its 18 years in power would be considered patchy by any impartial observer.

Read more by Andy Maciver

It has done some popular things, for sure, most prominent amongst them probably being the expansion of taxpayer-funded nursery provision, which has put significant sums of money back into the pockets of workers.

But it has been mired in policy controversy since its last win.

It has been forced to abandon a policy to de-commercialise rural waters, which it was feared would decimate rural economies.

It has been forced to abandon rent caps, which proved to be destructive for investment in the housing sector and reduced the supply of housing.

And, with the by-election right around the........

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