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Nicaragua: The Opportunity to End the Dictatorship

The political mobilization can open the opportunity for a political change beginning this year, one which could cause Rosario Murillo to back down.

By Manuel Orozco (Confidencial)

HAVANA TIMES – The political and economic climate in Nicaragua could offer an opportunity to transform the country away from its dictatorial context. Although there is no crisis, the current situation presents a vulnerability for Rosario Murillo and an opportunity for Nicaraguans, the opposition, and the international community to break free from the repressive framework.

Murillo facing an adverse but not disastrous panorama

Murillo faces a complex situation. There is less money, and the private sector anticipates lower consumption, less credit, and greater uncertainty in the short term. There is more informal work and fewer well-paying opportunities, making it harder to earn a living in an atmosphere where politics is underlying, but not the main driver, and where the dictatorship is absent from everyday conversations within the privacy of family life.

At least a third of households are keeping a close eye on what’s happening here and there. They’re not blind, and while they’re not sitting around waiting, they’re pretty much ready for whatever comes (as the Venezuelans, who later declared “they saw it coming”).

Meanwhile, the dictatorship balances between the international situation and maintaining political control. Murillo is frightened and proceeds with caution. In El Carmen the presidential residence and offices, there’s talk that “something imminent” may happen. Meanwhile, Murillo retains her monopoly on power, with support from her four chief pillars: Fidel Moreno, Ovidio Reyes, Gustavo Porras, and Julio Cesar Aviles. She depends on these figures, together with her son Laureano in the role of intermediary, to guarantee her stability.

Certainly, the war in Iran, the US meetings with Cuba, and Venezuela’s realignment have left Murillo standing alone on the other side of the fence. The fear is palpable, because there are some people from the middle ranks of the government who are anticipating a shift coming from the United States, and they have lowered their tone in their dealings with the local community—adopting a more conciliatory approach and making it clear that they are merely following orders.

This fear is not unfounded: the United States is determined to put more pressure on Murillo this year, and although the pressure is not intended to bring about an overthrow of the dictatorship, the goal is to implement reform from within. The current economic situation isn’t favorable for Nicaragua, and the government’s only two real allies, China and Russia, aren’t willing to bail out the regime.

Chinese financing won’t grow beyond last year’s levels and may even decrease, so the cushion for the State to draw from will not gain any more clients. As for Russia, this is a country that matters only to Aviles (for reasons of military support); with Ortega out of the picture, neither Laureano nor Rosario are prepared to express “close relations.” This puts them in a vulnerable position, as no one in Latin America and the Caribbean is willing to support them.

Meanwhile, Murillo continues to exercise control through repression and surveillance, issuing warnings of all kinds directed especially at those who are in better economic conditions, since they’re the ones with the most to lose.

She employs a form of invisible repression: intimidation, arrests, and purges. Before June, at least one figure from the dictatorial elite – typically a strategically trusted operative – will most likely come under scrutiny following an arrest and investigation for corruption, generating a minor upheaval. Intimidation and arrests targeting professionals are fueled by accusations from public officials seeking favors.

Meanwhile, restrictions on entering and leaving the country continue, albeit to a lesser extent, and some returning travelers are greeted with “warnings” or “reminders” of how they’re expected to behave. Extortion is spreading among high-level figures, a practice that may stem from personal urgency to flee the system.

The “missing link” also remains: the civic opposition that was neutralized but not destroyed. The framework that criminalized many leaders and sent them into exile (in 2021) remains active. There are at least five organized political coalitions that continue to exert pressure: The Monteverde Democratic Concertation group, made up of what was the CxL, Unamos, and UNAB; the Mesa Nicaragua Somos Todos [“All at the Nicaraguan Table”].”; the Nicaraguan University Alliance; Ruta por el Cambio [“Roadmap to Change”]; and the Gran Confederación Opositora [“Great Opposition Confederation”] which has absorbed the Movimiento Campesino. These groups are fragile, poorly connected to the country’s internal reality, and quite fragmented among themselves. They are also marked by deep mistrust of each other, attacks, and disunity over past ideology, and an obsession with maintaining leadership in exile all the while having very fragile networks in Nicaragua. Despite all this, they’re there.

In summary: a fragile economy, a worried inner circle of power, a hegemonic authority willing to do anything to maintain power, and a present but fragmented opposition.

Alternatives for promoting change

Murillo believes her vulnerability is temporary and manageable because external pressure will be moderate and bearable—enough to avoid making commitments. She doesn’t expect any internal changes that would “shake” her up. Her conclusion is that, as long as she remains silent this year and in 2027 proposes an electoral process under her control, à la Maduro (“there’ll be elections, but I’ll make sure I win them”), international pressure will not increase, and the regime’s permanence will continue as planned.

Her expectations may clash with unexpected and unforeseeable situations, such as the United States deciding to act after June, along with whatever happens with Cuba, and to direct pressure towards forcing a reform process that strikes at the status quo or even calling upon a dissident figure (not necessarily in exile) to be the architect of a transition. Both the Army and Murillo underestimate how frequently erratic and mercurial Donald Trump is.

They also underestimate that the day the people see a green light, they’ll take to the streets and shed their fear.

Political mobilization could create an opportunity for change that begins this year, and that Murillo will have to consider and even yield to. That opportunity depends on four steps: First, Nicaraguans and allies of change must be clear about why this is being done. Second, the civic groups must take the risk of transforming themselves into an opposition. Third, rethinking how to rebuild an international alliance like the one that existed in the struggle to free the political prisoners; and fourth, forging a transnational relationship with the diaspora and their families, and creating a communications link.

Although it may seem obvious, clarity is still lacking regarding what needs to be transformed in Nicaragua. Some think in terms of a radical change with the elimination of Sandinismo and the family clan; others about prioritizing justice as the first order of business. The reality is that there are no pat answers, but the first imperative is reaching consensus about the elimination of the police apparatus, so that the power balance can pivot in a democratic direction.

This is linked to the second point, which concerns the opposition groups’ transitioning from presenting themselves as an international political lobby towards developing a machinery for political mobilization. The change is not merely cosmetic; rather, it requires political maturity to operate on three fronts and gain legitimacy as a genuine opposition movement in the eyes of Nicaraguans. Rather than simply forming a united front, the groups need to demonstrate to their base that they have identified and built a network of internal actors who support the political resistance; mobilize internally a subtle civic protest that deepens the current demoralization with the dictatorship, show that the economic situation is a political problem, and establish communication with dissident figures within the power structure so that they recognize that alternatives exist.

Thirdly, the current situation provides an opportunity to rebuild the international alliance with European and Latin American countries, the Vatican, and international organizations. Many believe that everything is in the hands of the United States, that the die is cast, and that we just have to wait for them to “call us.” But that is not the case, and an international presence will accelerate the opposition’s legitimization and the needed reforms of the dictatorship; and in the case of Nicaragua, the United States is not opposed to having some allies.

Finally, the connection with the Nicaraguan diaspora is fundamental because it opens up a front of transnational pressure from those who left, as well as from transnational families, who can stand firm in the face of repression and resist.

Some believe that Trump is what Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela have in common, and that is why we must continue lobbying. However, there are three additional variables: an economic contraction (critical for Cuba), and an autocracy challenged by public opinion and social protests. These triggers depended on political mobilization, and in Nicaragua, leveraging these variables is within the opposition’s reach and could steer the train away from the cliff, and seize the opportunity to resist.

First published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated and posted in English by Havana Times.

Read more from Nicaragua here on Havana Times.

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