While opinion polls show Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) ahead of the Coalition, how substantial or transient this is remains a political question.

The ABC, using election analyst William Bowe’s figures, charted the rise of PHON from when its vote in the House of Representatives was below 5%, climbing to just over 6% last year, to its recent 27%.

The dramatic rise began last May, after the Coalition scored its worst-ever election result, with a -3.85% national swing.

With Sussan Ley as leader, PHON was polling 25% to the Coalition’s 20%. Under Taylor, the Coalition is matching PHON at 23%.

The latest Newspoll, conducted February 5–8 from a sample of 1234, had Labor on 33%, One Nation 27%, the Coalition on 18%, the Greens on 12% and “others” on 10% of primary votes.

While debate rages over whether PHON could overtake the Coalition at an actual election, similar developments in other Western countries makes the prospect seem possible.

In the United States, “MAGA Republicans” aligned to President Donald Trump have taken over the Republican party. Garden variety Republican politicians have had to demonstrate personal loyalty to Trump to maintain their seats or advance their careers.

In Britain, the far-right Reform Party has been polling well ahead of all other parties for close to a year and dozens of prominent Conservative Party members — including shadow cabinet members and current and former members of parliament — have switched to........

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