Soon after the Iran war began on February 28, I wrote in these columns about the difficulties in predicting the evolution of a war and the law of unintended consequences which is a companion of almost all military conflicts. Notwithstanding the ceasefire put in place on April 8 it can be said that the experience of earlier wars and those which are presently going on applies to the Iran war as well. 

Media reports have indicated that Israel’s intelligence agency had conveyed to the country’s political leadership that if Iran’s top leaders were eliminated the Vilayat-e-Faqih system would implode. The implication of this assessment was that once that occurred the opponents of the system would take over the country and the US and Israel would be able to impose their will on them.

It appears that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had shared this assessment with US President Donald Trump. His decision to wage war on Iran, in concert with Israel, seems to indicate that he had agreed with Israel’s assessment. This impression is strengthened by Trump going along with Israel to order a decapitation strike against the top Iranian leadership. That led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior political and military members of Iran’s government. However, the result of........

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