What the Data ShowsThe data of India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the published research on Himalaya climate offer a frightening scenario: Jammu & Kashmir is already warming up faster than the world average. A decade wise review of the historic time series of the IMD shows an increase of nearly 1.2 degree Celsius in the average annual temperature over the last few decades; it’ s is also accompanied by a drive period shift in many parameters of precipitation regime. Winters have become shorter, warmer and amazingly dodgy. The period of winter, Chillai Kalan , from December 21 to January 31, a period of historic reliability in terms of snow-pack build-up which kept high-altitude glaciers in a sustained mode of mass-balance, as revealed by research, is showing terrible trends of failure with grab shots of longer dry days, rains instead of snow and the late march weeks of snow-fall.

Meanwhile, the area is subjected to extremes of weather compression long term rainfall concentrated within multi-hour cloudbursts is regularly delivered for short durations, producing localized flash floods, slope failure and huge landslides on important commercial routes like Jammu-Srinagar NH-44. Elsewhere, the glaciers of the Greater Himalaya are retreating at an astonishing pace (e.g. the Kolahoi Glacier, the glacier that feeds the Jhelum River, is in rapid retreat), drastically reducing the permanent ice cover of the far-reaching ecosystem that sustains water flows from spring to monsoon.

An Economy Under SiegeThe economic foundation of rural subsistence is based on agriculture and horticulture, with these two sectors mainly contribute directly 15% to the Gross Domestic Product (GSDP) of the Union Territory of Kashmir and sustain more than 3.5 million livelihoods. It is identified that apples, scarped as the most vulnerable microclimatic sensitive sector, is playing indispensable part in the economy of Kashmir where the annual value is more than Rs 10,000 crores. An unseasonal warm spell during February and March months results in early flowering in trees when coupled with mis frozen cold air and Hailstorms, results in early plant growth, leaves and blossoms due to exposure to early warm period are getting shunned by springtime frosts, snow storms.........

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