Bangladesh has delivered a political verdict that few could have imagined two years ago. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), once struggling, boycotting elections and facing mass arrests, has now secured a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Its acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, who had been in self-imposed exile for years, is now set to become Prime Minister.

This is not just a change of government. It marks the end of a chapter that began with the 2024 student uprising, which led to the fall of Sheikh Hasina and ended the 15-year rule of the Awami League. That movement, largely driven by Generation Z, had promised a new kind of politics: less family-based, less polarised, and more democratic and accountable. However, the election results have brought an unexpected twist: the return of an established political force.

According to the results, the BNP and its allies have won 212 seats, well ahead of the Jamaat-e-Islami alliance, which secured 77 seats. Tarique Rahman himself won from two constituencies, marking a strong personal comeback. Just two years ago, he was in London while his party was boycotting the elections and many of its leaders and workers were behind bars. Today, the situation has completely changed.

In these elections, the Awami League was barred from contesting. The party later called for a boycott of the polls. Sheikh Hasina, currently in exile in India, has described the election as a farce. Her absence clearly changed the political contest, giving the BNP a clear advantage. Jamaat-e-Islami, too, has achieved its best-ever performance, even though it had hoped to gain more support through its understanding with a newly formed youth-backed party.

The key point, however, is that voters have chosen an experienced and familiar political party over a new and untested alternative. The youth-led National Citizen Party, which emerged from the protest and unrest movement, who did play a role in bringing change to the country, but could not turn its street-level support into votes at the ballot box. Internal divisions and perhaps a controversial alliance with Jamaat diluted its appeal. Bangladesh’s Gen Z, as political pundits suggest, may have sparked regime change, but it has not yet built a durable political vehicle, perhaps due to a lack of vision and experience.

The outcome of the results reveals something deeper about Bangladeshi society, reassuring that the 1971 Liberation War remains foundational. This should be seen as a positive sign by New Delhi. Jamaat’s historical opposition to independence casts a long shadow in the country. However, its energised campaign since the post-protest and uprising appeared to some extent to have an advantage in having a bigger share of votes than their previous election participations. One should also not ignore that the percentage of votes cast has also lowered in the current polls to around 60 percent.

Thus, the electorate has chosen continuity within change: a different dynasty, not a different system. Tarique Rahman’s father, Ziaur Rahman, was a key figure in the liberation struggle and later president. His mother, Khaleda Zia, served three terms as prime minister. The BNP is a legacy party repositioning itself as an agent of reform. Senior BNP leaders have emphasised institutional restoration. Since the uprising, despite the caretaker government, much of the governance and economy had derailed.  Bangladesh’s judiciary, election machinery, and financial institutions require rebuilding. Law and order is an urgent concern; post-uprising violence, minority insecurity and reports of armed extremism threaten social cohesion. Political analysts suggest that a government born of upheaval must first deliver stability.

For New Delhi, which must keep a close watch on its neighbour, this election in Bangladesh is less about personalities. It is more about maintaining balance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Tarique Rahman and conveyed best wishes. PM Modi also spoke on the phone with Tarique Rehman, reaffirming India’s continued commitment to the peace, progress and prosperity of the people of both countries, showing a practical and pragmatic approach. A few months earlier, when Khaleda Zia passed away, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended her funeral and met Rahman, handing over a letter from Modi. India quietly kept communication channels open and made it clear that, despite political differences, its relationship with Bangladesh and its people.

India and Bangladesh share nearly 4,000 kilometres of border, common rivers, strong trade ties, and deep cultural and linguistic connections, especially in Bengal. Geography cannot be changed. No government in Dhaka can afford long-term tension with India. At the same time, India cannot allow instability along its eastern border.

However, some mistrust remains. Many in Bangladesh feel that New Delhi was too supportive of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, even when her government was being criticised for becoming increasingly authoritarian. Her continued stay in India has added to political sensitivity. Any impression that India is interfering in Bangladesh’s internal matters could create difficulties for Tarique Rahman at home. Leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have spoken about building ties based on “mutual respect” and “strategic autonomy,” which means maintaining balance rather than aligning.

In the past, the BNP has used warmer language towards Pakistan compared to the Awami League. After Hasina’s fall, Dhaka and Islamabad have resumed contact. Delhi will watch these developments carefully. However, the basic reality remains unchanged: India is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and closest economic partner. Cooperation in energy, cross-border electricity trade, transit access to India’s Northeast, and joint river management are in the interest of both countries.

Tarique Rahman’s 17 years in the West may influence his style of governance. Exposure to developed democracies could shape institutional reforms and foreign policy thinking. Bangladesh today stands at the centre of growing geopolitical competition: China’s infrastructure investments, America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and India’s regional role all meet in the Bay of Bengal.

China is a big investor and defence supplier to Bangladesh. The United States is an important market for Bangladesh’s exports. India, meanwhile, is a neighbour that cannot be ignored. Managing relations with all three countries will need a careful balance. If the government moves too close to any one country, it could create political problems at home and abroad. Tarique Rahman will have to move very carefully and maintain balance.

For India, the main aim should be stability, not trying to bring back the past. The close security cooperation seen during the time of Sheikh Hasina, especially against insurgent groups in the Northeast, may not continue in the same way. So, New Delhi should focus on building broader ties that are not dependent on any one political party or one issue. This includes cooperation in infrastructure, digital connectivity, education exchanges, and private sector partnerships. Sports, especially cricket, again need to play an important role.

First, both countries should begin formal talks at the earliest. A high-level visit within the first year of the new government will help in building confidence. Discussions on sharing river waters, especially the Teesta and other common rivers, need fresh political attention. These are not just technical matters but emotional, too.

Border issues remain sensitive, as there is hardly any no-man’s land. Even though fencing and vigilant troops on the border continue to protect the borders, it must be handled carefully to rebuild trust. Incidents of firing along the border, where civilians are sometimes caught in the middle, often lead to public anger. Humane handling of such cases can help reduce tension.

Third, economic ties should be further strengthened. Bangladesh will soon graduate from the Least Developed Country category and may face export-related challenges. India can support Bangladesh by offering better market access and helping integrate supply chains, particularly in sectors like textiles and pharmaceuticals.

Fourth, people-to-people relations must be encouraged. Cultural exchanges, sports ties and academic cooperation should be protected from unnecessary political remarks. Responsible statements by leaders on both sides are very important to maintain goodwill.

Finally, the success of Tarique Rahman will depend more on how he handles domestic challenges than on foreign policy. A strong election victory does not mean the challenges are over. Young people expect reforms. Minorities seek security. Investors want stability and clear policies. The new Prime Minister of Bangladesh is definitely going to face an uphill task as expectations from Gen Z are quite high. The new government will need steady and balanced support. As one senior leader in Bangladesh said, this is not a victory to celebrate but a responsibility to fulfil.

The Bay of Bengal is too important, the border too long, and the shared history too deep for the distance between the two countries. The legacy of 1971 connects India and Bangladesh through sacrifice and memory. But history should guide the future, not hold it back. As Bangladesh begins a new chapter, both Dhaka and Delhi must move forward with patience, realism and determination.

Surinder Singh Oberoi,

National Editor Greater Kashmir

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