Omar Abdullah’s first Budget, presented amid the transition to elected governance, read like an extension of Nirmala Sitharaman’s eighth J&K Budget — heavy on central devolutions, light on local ingenuity. Perhaps being in unchartered waters of governance of J&K as a UT and the brevity of time constrained bold thinking; after all, he did walk into a disempowered seat. The new administrative power structure was designed to constrain the authority of the elected Chief Minister.

After a year of running the new set up, this year’s J&K Budget must show some intent, ambition and heft to address the economic distress in various segments of the local economy. This year’s budget should go beyond the accounts and spell out a strategy in line with the new political economy of the state. The core underlying budgetary strategy that can be outlined in the budget speech is one of “Khud Kafeel Kashmir”. Aligning with the national strategy of Atmanirbhar Bharat, Omar must make it the rallying point for governance.

A self-reliant Kashmir—Khud Kafeel Kashmir — transcends economics; it is a political necessity to reclaim narrative control in an era of centralized power structure. Without it, J&K risks remaining a fiscal appendage, its liabilities soaring to 60 percent of GSDP while per capita income lags 24 percent behind the national average.

The navigation path must be spelt out clearly with timelines. He must articulate a dual-pronged strategy: a macroeconomic stabilization program for immediate relief and a structural adjustment plan for long-term resilience. Stabilization, comprising short-term initiatives to arrest decline and revive key sectors. Structural Adjustment, the long-term developmental strategy, must be tailored to Kashmir’s unique vulnerabilities and strengths.

Kashmir’s economy has historically been export-oriented yet import-dependent, with a staggering 35 to 40 percent of its Gross State Domestic Product tied to external inflows. This structural imbalance, exacerbated by global disruptions like the pandemic and local volatility, has left sectors like horticulture and crafts trapped in costly inventory cycles, unable to realize value amid supply chain fractures.

First, stabilization........

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