The Kashmir Valley, once known for its serene rivers and sprawling wetlands, now stands on the brink of repeated hydrological disasters. The catastrophic 2014 floods served as a wake-up call for policymakers, scientists, and residents alike. But rather than bolster resilience, post-flood actions have allowed deeper vulnerabilities to take root. Uncontrolled urbanization, alteration of floodplains, degradation of wetlands, infrastructural myopia, and climate intensification have all combined to set up the valley for more devastating flood scenarios in the future.

This op-ed draws from peer-reviewed scientific research, remote sensing analyses, global flood science, and local empirical data to outline the potential future flood scenarios facing Kashmir. Special attention is given to Srinagar city and the adjoining districts of Pulwama and Budgam, areas which are now far more vulnerable than they were in 2014.

Scientific understanding of Kashmir’s hydrology

Kashmir’s main river, the Jhelum, originates from the Verinag spring in Anantnag and meanders through the valley before crossing into Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Its major tributaries—Lidder, Vaishaw, Rambiyara, Romshi, Doodganga, and Sukhnag, etc—are fast-flowing streams descending from mountainous terrain with minimal lag time. According to studies by Romshoo et al. (2015) and Meraj et al. (2018), the confluence of intense precipitation over these catchments with snowmelt can overwhelm the Jhelum basin within 72 to 96 hours.

A study published in the journal Remote Sensing (2022) using HEC-HMS and AHP-WEM modeling confirms that the basin’s hydrological response is extremely rapid. The 2014 floods, driven by three days of intense rainfall and simultaneous tributary overflow, caused the Jhelum to breach its banks in multiple locations. Its discharge exceeded 1.3 lakh cusecs—twice its safe carrying capacity. Historically, Jhelum’s carrying capacity has steadily declined. It has declined more than 30% in last 30 years.

Shrinking safety nets

Historically, Kashmir’s wetlands and paddy lands acted........

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