Ten years ago in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, the C5 1 format was launched—an ambitious diplomatic initiative linking the five Central Asian republics with the United States. Initially focused on regional security and development amid the U.S.-NATO counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, the platform has since matured into a strategic forum navigating great power competition, resource diplomacy, and connectivity.

This month’s tenth anniversary summit in Washington marked a turning point. Hosted at the White House, it signaled a shift “from diplomacy to deals,” with critical minerals, infrastructure corridors, and private-sector mobilization at the forefront. The U.S. aims to position Central Asia as a key node in global supply chains and energy transition strategies. Yet geopolitical tensions loom as China and Russia, once again, assess Western inroads into their traditional sphere of influence. Furthermore, Afghanistan, sharing over 2,300 km of borders with three Central Asian states, remains a wildcard—more stable, rich with shared water and other resources, yet diplomatically isolated, and nowadays, at odds over security concerns with its Eastern neighbor, Pakistan.

Immediately, in the footsteps of the Washington summit, as the Seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State convened in Tashkent on Nov. 15, the C5 (plus Azerbaijan invited as a guest that became a full member transforming the group into C6) asserted regional agency through multilateral agreements and joint projects. Underscoring a shifting dynamic, China, Russia and Europe are also paying close attention to the region’s evolving significance.

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Beneath the summits and cooperation platforms lies a deeper imperative for the Central Asian stakeholders: peace and engagement with Afghanistan as a prerequisite for regional stability and economic integration. The path from Samarkand to Washington via Kabul – not to underestimate Beijing, Moscow and other trajectories – reflects a strategic recalibration already underway. However, the devil is in the details and in how rebalancing can avoid negative competition by aligning shared interests and promoting East-West synergy, or at least to prevent geopolitical collision.

From Isolation to Global Relevance

As part of the Soviet Union ruled from Moscow for more than 70 years, the five republics have each followed their own particular brand of de-sovietization post 1991. Normalization with the West occurred gradually and at varying speeds. After the EU summit in Central Asia, Washington is now stepping into a crowded and geopolitically charged neighborhood. Both the EU and the U.S. approach combined trade liberalization and investment with political reform incentives under initiatives like the Global Gateway and C5 1 (now C6 1).

The latter initially focused on regional security, economic growth and environmental sustainability. Now that Azerbaijan has officially joined the Consultative format, the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connecting China via Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Europe) is key to unlocking the Central Asian republics’ path to growth, prosperity and stability.

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Looking at the trajectory, during the last phase of Western military presence in Afghanistan, foundational dialogues emphasized on counterterrorism, border security and counter-narcotics. Covid-19 response coordination and medical aid boosted relations with key partners like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Post-Afghanistan strategy since 2021 has aimed to recalibrate regional priorities, with focus on stability and resilience.

Amid renewed Chinese and Russian influence, the region has been a key route for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese investment in the region over the past 20 years has reached approximately $130 billion, primarily driven by infrastructure, energy and natural resources projects. Kazakhstan is by far the largest recipient (at more than 50%) while Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have attracted........

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