Afghanistan is often described as landlocked, but in hydrological terms, it is upstream of two major states. Its rivers descend toward Pakistan in the east and Iran in the west, feeding the Kunar-Kabul-Indus and Helmand-Hamun basins. Geography has made Afghanistan a gatekeeper of water—a form of leverage that the Taliban now understands more clearly than any previous government. While the regime lacks international recognition or a viable economy, it controls the headwaters that two stronger neighbors cannot replace.

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In 2025, Taliban officials announced plans to construct new dams along the Kunar River, which originates in Pakistan’s Hindu Kush as the Chitral River, crosses into Afghanistan, and then returns to Pakistan to join the Indus. In late October, The Economic Times reported that the Taliban intends to build these structures “as soon as possible,” using Afghan firms and national funds. The project’s technical prospects are uncertain, Afghanistan’s finances are constrained, and few foreign contractors will work under Taliban supervision, but the political signal matters more than the engineering.

Islamabad recognizes that even modest upstream storage can impact irrigation and hydropower in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and downstream reservoirs, such as Warsak and Mohmand, particularly during the low-flow months from October to April. Pakistan and Afghanistan have no treaty governing these shared rivers.

There is no equivalent of the Indus Waters Treaty, no joint commission, and no binding data exchange. Even the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which states that countries must share rivers fairly and avoid causing serious harm to others, has not been ratified by either Afghanistan or Pakistan. Consequently, there’s no binding legal framework. That vacuum gives the Taliban freedom to act and leaves Pakistan with little recourse beyond diplomacy.

New Delhi has expressed interest in supporting Afghanistan’s broader water-management efforts, but there is no evidence of Indian involvement in the Kunar project itself.

Water thus joins the long list of grievances between the two countries: border skirmishes, refugee expulsions, and militant sanctuaries. Even if Afghanistan never builds a single dam, its power lies less in construction than in the threat of it. Every proposed project........

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