The so-called 90-day tariff pause announced by the United States under President Trump has introduced a temporary calm but with no certainty that it will last. The US administration’s unpredictability, marked by abrupt reversals, such as the drastic reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from over 145% to 30%—reciprocated by China with a cut to 10% on US imports—has underscored the volatility in global trade policymaking.

Regardless of what comes next, nations across the world are already recalibrating trade ties. Many, including India, have begun negotiating bilateral trade agreements with the US in response to this brief window of détente. For India, the US remains a vital trade partner, both as a buyer and a seller. It makes sense to pursue a deal. However, New Delhi must tread carefully.

Lessons from the Past: No Guarantees

History cautions against over-reliance on US trade commitments. The US has previously withdrawn from major international agreements, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Paris Climate Agreement, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran nuclear deal). Even after signing agreements, adherence has often been dictated by domestic political compulsions rather than long-term strategic commitments.

Hence, India must avoid capitulating to unreasonable demands for the sake of short-term political optics. Instead, it should adopt a considered, strategic approach, similar to how the remaining TPP........

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