When policy looks like a tantrum, economies pay the price. Last week’s proclamation from the White House slapped a staggering $100,000 charge on H-1B sponsorships — a move rolled out with breath-taking haste and defended as a revenue-and-protection measure by the administration. Whatever its stated objectives, the practical arithmetic and geopolitical fallout are stark: this is not a narrow reform but a blunt instrument aimed squarely at the talent bridge between India and America.

Let the numbers speak first. The H-1B system is not small: USCIS approved roughly 399,395 H-1B petitions in FY-2024, of which about 141,205 were approvals for initial employment (new entrants rather than renewals). The statutory annual cap remains 85,000 (65,000 regular slots plus 20,000 for advanced degrees).

Depending on how the new charge is applied, the headline revenue to U.S. coffers could range widely — and not all of it would be net gain once economic second-order effects are accounted for. If the $100,000 were charged only to the statutory cap (85,000 new visas), the gross take is $8.5 billion. If it were to fall against all initial petitions approved in a year (~141,205), that figure jumps to roughly $14.1 billion.

If the levy extended to every approved petition in FY-2024 (a broader and legally doubtful reading), the sum would be nearly $40 billion. (Using today’s rupee-dollar rates, $100,000 is roughly ₹8.8 lakh — small variations in exchange rates explain why some reports quote ₹83 lakh or ₹88 lakh.)

But raw revenue is not the whole ledger. Indian technocrats are woven through American tech, finance, healthcare and academia — they are founding entrepreneurs, senior engineers, hospital specialists and university researchers. Indian nationals accounted for roughly three........

© Free Press Journal