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Pahalgam Terror Attack: Tearing Up Treaties May Backfire On Pakistan, Tilt Strategic Advantage Towards India

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In the aftermath of the cold-blooded massacre of tourists in Pahalgam by terrorists owing allegiance to a Lashkar-e-Toiba affiliate, both India and Pakistan targeted long-standing treaties which govern river flows and the effective border between the two countries.

This “tearing up of treaties” went down well with nationalists on either side and added to the war rhetoric. While politicians in Pakistan threatened a “river of blood” if the water flowing through the Indus River was impeded, Indian leaders spoke of ensuring that “not even a drop” of water reached Pakistan.

However, despite the bravado, the reality is far more complex. Geography and topography dictate how a river flows; human intervention to store part of this water also depends on geographical realities more than engineering marvels.

The Indus Water Treaty, signed by both countries in 1960 under the aegis of the World Bank, despite its many shortcomings, at least recognised geographical realities and awarded the three western rivers, which flow into the main Indus—Chenab, Jhelum, and the Indus itself—to Pakistan.

On the Indian side, these rivers travel through narrow gorges and valleys where attempts to divert or store most of the water can lead to catastrophic consequences, which could include flooding the entire Kashmir Valley, while being unable to stop the flow of the rivers as they rush downstream.

India was given the three eastern rivers, Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej, which flow through the flat plains of (Indian) Punjab. Water reservoirs and hydel projects can be set up more easily on these rivers. But one has to remember that Punjab........

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