The sentence handed down on Monday by Bangladesh’s domestic International Crimes Tribunal, a death penalty for ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina, marks a new turn for the neighbouring nation already convulsed by months of political breakdown since Hasina was ousted a year ago and replaced by an unelected, interim government. What began as a post-coup crackdown and as trials that opponents call politically motivated has now exploded into a security and diplomatic crisis whose shockwaves are being felt well beyond Dhaka.

For India and Western capitals, which prize stability in the region, the verdict presents a thicket of hard choices: contain violence; shield civilians; prevent a refugee and humanitarian cascade; and guard against the transnationalisation of unrest and radical networks that could exploit the chaos. The tribunal’s ruling comes against a backdrop of intense civil unrest. In the lead-up to the verdict, the Awami League, now banned, had called for nationwide shutdowns and mobilised strikes and mass protests.

At the same time, Dhaka witnessed repeated “cocktail-bomb” explosions, arson attacks, and targeted sabotage that left police and paramilitary units on maximum alert. Authorities have issued shootat-sight directives in some districts to suppress outbreaks of arson and attacks on government facilities. The problem for Bangladesh has always been that its people are riven into two camps.

The first one favours liberal Islam and better ties with the rest of South Asia and has favoured parties like the Praja Krishak Party before the subcontinent won its independence and the Awami League and Left parties after 1947.

The second favours an Islamic nation, which in........

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