Amidst the din of SIR and its impact on the upcoming round of Assembly elections came the most unexpected development—Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar filing his nomination for the Rajya Sabha elections. That means soon, probably by mid-April, he would step down from the post he has been holding as dear as life for nearly 20 years. He has already gone down in the annals of history as the longest-serving chief minister in Bihar, a record unlikely to be broken in the foreseeable future.

It was explained that towards the fag-end of his long political career, Nitish Kumar wants to create another record that few can match, that is, being a member of all four legislative bodies. He has already served as an MLA and MLC in Bihar and as a member of the Lok Sabha. The Rajya Sabha is the only legislative body he has not been a member of so far.

This sounds nice but unpalatable, that too when he could have created the most enviable record of becoming the longest-serving chief minister of any Indian state by completing his current term. He is set to bow out of the office as the eighth-longest-serving chief minister. It is ludicrous to buy the theory that Nitish Kumar is quitting to fulfil his wish to serve as a Rajya Sabha member.

Health explanation raises further questions

It is said that politics is the last resort of scoundrels. That being the case, the Rajya Sabha can be termed the last resort of discarded politicians. Nitish Kumar, despite concerns for his health and obvious signs of ageing, is anything but a rejected leader. Just a few months ago, he was handed over a fresh mandate, that too with increased numbers, when it appeared after the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections that he was living on borrowed time after the extremely poor performance of his party, the Janata Dal (United).

If health were his only concern, Nitish Kumar could have opted out of taking the oath after the NDA's resounding victory in the 2025 Bihar elections. True, his health has been declining, but he was good to go for some more time since there has been no evidence of any deterioration of his mental or physical well-being in four months. The desire to serve as a Rajya Sabha member and concern for his health, at most, are mere camouflage to hide something that is not yet public and is subject to speculation.

Pattern in BJP’s political strategy

If viewed properly, there is a clear pattern that the BJP has been following for some time under which a person like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, once seen as a rival to Narendra Modi as the BJP prime ministerial candidate before the 2014 general elections, was denied chief ministership in Madhya Pradesh even after he led the BJP to victory and shifted to national politics. The same pattern has been followed in the case of Nitish Kumar too.

That the BJP was initially reluctant to project Nitish Kumar as the NDA chief ministerial candidate for the 2025 elections had become obvious. The party dithered on stating that he would be the chief minister if the NDA won another term until the last moment, when it became clear that the BJP needed him. Nitish Kumar had cultivated a strong vote bank of women voters and Maha Dalits carefully over the years. Moreover, he continued to be the most favourite leader of his fellow caste, the Kurmi, who are spread across the state and have a sizeable say in Bihar politics.

Speculation over Nishant Kumar’s political entry

Around the same time, the BJP started working on his only child, Nishant Kumar, who was supposed to be apolitical and had remained so all these years while his father served as the chief minister. The deal was struck before the Bihar elections, which are unfolding now. The plan is that the BJP would take over the post of Bihar chief minister, and Nishant would be made the deputy chief minister. Nishant became amenable to it, and Nitish Kumar gave in, as a doting father concerned for his son's future after him.

Since Nishant is new to politics, and it is assumed that politically he is a greenhorn, the bigger plan of the BJP would now come into play, that is, to make the JD (U) truly the B Team of the BJP. This would give the BJP enough time to usurp the vote bank that Nitish Kumar meticulously cultivated.

What next for Nitish Kumar?

Everything seems to be going by the script written long before the Bihar polls. Another question that remains unanswered is what next for Nitish Kumar. Has he been promised some role in national politics? Will Nitish Kumar be inducted as a cabinet minister in the Modi government, or will he become the deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha with the post set to fall vacant soon, as the JD(U) denied renomination to the outgoing Rajya Sabha deputy chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh? Droupadi Murmu's term as the President of India is also set to end in July 2027. It is possible that Nitish Kumar has been offered any of these three roles unless he actually intends to fade out from active politics.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.

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