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In a closed-door workshop in Hawaii in March on U.S.-China relations, an American participant asked a question that has now surfaced repeatedly in Washington: Does the war with Iran increase the risk that China will use force against Taiwan?

The question reflects a familiar assumption: China is a tactical predator, waiting for a moment of U.S. distraction to strike. But that view misreads how Beijing frames the Taiwan issue. Beijing is not looking for an opportunity to use force, as Peking University professor Jie Dalei and I responded at the workshop. It is looking for every possible way to not to have to use it.

In a closed-door workshop in Hawaii in March on U.S.-China relations, an American participant asked a question that has now surfaced repeatedly in Washington: Does the war with Iran increase the risk that China will use force against Taiwan?

The question reflects a familiar assumption: China is a tactical predator, waiting for a moment of U.S. distraction to strike. But that view misreads how Beijing frames the Taiwan issue. Beijing is not looking for an opportunity to use force, as Peking University professor Jie Dalei and I responded at the workshop. It is looking for every possible way to not to have to use it.

A sharp reminder of that logic is the ongoing visit to the mainland by Cheng Li-wun—the chair of the Kuomintang (KMT), the opposition and largest single party in Taiwan’s legislature, from April 7 to April 12 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. If she meets directly with Xi, which is likely, it will be the first meeting in a decade between the leaders of the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party.

To many in the West, Cheng’s visit looks more like capitulation than peacemaking. Critics argue that by hosting the opposition while refusing to speak with Taiwan’s elected government, Beijing is trying to bypass the island’s democratic system. In that view, escalating military drills in the........

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