When Donald Trump returned to the White House, many expected he would make major changes to U.S. policy in the Middle East. After all, Trump opposed forever wars on the campaign trail, worked to reduce troop levels in the Middle East and nearby Afghanistan during his first administration, and came back to office with a lot of political space to challenge conventions on foreign policy.

At a strategic level, the expectation that Trump would begin pivoting from the Middle East made sense too. With the emergence of U.S. energy independence and the serious diminution of global terrorism following the 2019 collapse of the ISIS caliphate’s leadership, the Middle East is far less important to U.S. national security today than in past decades—a point acknowledged by the Trump administration’s own strategy documents.

When Donald Trump returned to the White House, many expected he would make major changes to U.S. policy in the Middle East. After all, Trump opposed forever wars on the campaign trail, worked to reduce troop levels in the Middle East and nearby Afghanistan during his first administration, and came back to office with a lot of political space to challenge conventions on foreign policy.

At a strategic level, the expectation that Trump would begin pivoting from the Middle East made sense too. With the emergence of U.S. energy independence and the serious diminution of global terrorism following the 2019 collapse of the ISIS caliphate’s leadership, the Middle East is far less important to U.S. national security today than in past decades—a point acknowledged by the Trump administration’s own strategy documents.

So a year into his second term, is Trump meeting expectations for a pivot from the Middle East?

Not really. A few bright spots aside (minor troop reductions in Iraq and Syria, bucking Israel at a couple key moments), current trendlines point to more U.S. military engagement in the region when Trump leaves office in 2029. At this point, the best one can hope for is to avoid excessive overreach that does great damage to U.S. national security.  

 Since Trump took office, U.S. troop levels in the Middle East have........

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